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BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Yandexwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Panda · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Jeezy · 2 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 2 games
0%

Team Yandex

Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 12 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
prblms · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
476 picks · 246 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
465 picks · 453 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 959 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 370 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
306 picks · 150 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 223 bans
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
291 picks · 473 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
289 picks · 634 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:31
Winter Bear 12%Team Yandex 88%
The model gave 88% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 40:28.
Game 2prediction correct12:42
Winter Bear 12%Team Yandex 88%
The model gave 88% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 32:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 88%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2