?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 26 games
65%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 22 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 17 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 15 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 15 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
67%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 24 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 17 games
41%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
476 picks · 245 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
465 picks · 452 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 958 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 370 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
306 picks · 150 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 223 bans
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
291 picks · 471 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
289 picks · 634 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total74% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:4
1w Team 65%OG 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 19:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
44% · 128 games44% · 223 games
Templar AssassinShad
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
50% · 195 games48% · 82 games
AxeMikSa`
Axe
Abaddon
AbaddonMunkushi~
51% · 112 games48% · 112 games
Void SpiritStojkov
Void Spirit
Chen
Chenkasane
64% · 95 games47% · 105 games
Bounty HunterDaze
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
46% · 97 games57% · 105 games
Naga Sirenn0tail
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct15:28
1w Team 65%OG 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
58% · 230 games47% · 99 games
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSquad1x
47% · 115 games47% · 178 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
57% · 121 game47% · 193 games
MarciShad
Marci
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
54% · 266 games45% · 77 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Bane
Banekasane
48% · 94 games49% · 279 games
Phoenixn0tail
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 74%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2