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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
1w Teamloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 31 game
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 26 games
35%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
53%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
50%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 26 games
65%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 18 games
72%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kasane · 14 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
468 picks · 242 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
460 picks · 446 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 949 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
322 picks · 367 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
303 picks · 147 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
51%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
288 picks · 467 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
286 picks · 635 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 61%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:12
AVULUS 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
55% · 188 games45% · 185 games
MedusaMunkushi~
Medusa
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
56% · 114 games48% · 179 games
EarthshakerSSS
Earthshaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
49% · 332 games47% · 335 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
58% · 85 games47% · 13 games
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
Skywrath Mage
Silencer
SilencerPuppey
49% · 147 games47% · 154 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct12:45
AVULUS 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSmiling Knight
60% · 16 games48% · 109 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLorenof
48% · 168 games47% · 69 games
LifestealerMunkushi~
Lifestealer
Pudge
PudgeSabeRLight-
51% · 36 games49% · 199 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Snapfire
SnapfireThiolicor
51% · 158 games55% · 118 games
Naga Sirenkasane
Naga Siren
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
51% · 354 games48% · 237 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2