FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 35 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 28 games
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 21 game
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 18 games
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shad · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
466 picks · 241 bans
Disruptor
459 picks · 444 bans
Puck
359 picks · 947 bans
Pugna
323 picks · 369 bans
Warlock
304 picks · 149 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 224 bans
Batrider
286 picks · 641 bans
Earthshaker
286 picks · 466 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 49%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total66% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:12
Runa Team 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
Queen of PainStojkov
TidehunterAlberkaaa
LycanMikSa`
Earthshakernicky`cool
Monkey KingShad
Hoodwinkqueezy
WarlockLelis
JakiroHduo
BaneDaze
Game 2prediction correct33:20
Runa Team 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonnesfeer
JuggernautShad
Timbersawnicky`cool
JakiroLelis
MarsAlberkaaa
Monkey KingStojkov
Snapfirequeezy
AxeMikSa`
WarlockHduo
HoodwinkDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 66%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2