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BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 1:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Inner Circleloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusk
GH · 36 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
43%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 23 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 23 games
61%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 18 games
39%

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 8 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 6 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
flacko · 6 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
flacko · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnus
Norma · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
465 picks · 239 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
458 picks · 442 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 947 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 370 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
304 picks · 150 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 226 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
288 picks · 669 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
286 picks · 645 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
Nigma Galaxy 74%Inner Circle 26%
The model gave 74% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageGhost
56% · 35 games61% · 126 games
Ursayowaai
Ursa
Muerta
MuertaSumaiL
49% · 321 game42% · 254 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Axe
AxeNo!ob
45% · 151 game48% · 96 games
Leshracdualrazee
Leshrac
Chen
ChenTobi
59% · 178 games52% · 152 games
Warlockflacko
Warlock
Snapfire
SnapfireOmaR
48% · 217 games42% · 274 games
TuskFernans
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 89%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1