FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Apex Genesisloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 26 games
Warlock
kasane · 22 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 15 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Jakiro
kasane · 14 games
Apex Genesis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
462 picks · 236 bans
Disruptor
457 picks · 439 bans
Puck
357 picks · 946 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 370 bans
Warlock
303 picks · 150 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 225 bans
Nature's Prophet
288 picks · 670 bans
Batrider
287 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
1w Team 62%Apex Genesis 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Game 2prediction correct33:6
1w Team 62%Apex Genesis 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:37.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2