PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 3:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Virtus.proloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Tusk
yamich · 21 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 20 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 15 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 13 games
Virtus.pro
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 21 game
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Abed · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 19 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
458 picks · 233 bans
Disruptor
457 picks · 436 bans
Puck
359 picks · 948 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
Warlock
304 picks · 150 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 226 bans
Queen of Pain
288 picks · 851 bans
Batrider
286 picks · 654 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total53% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:27
MOUZ 53%Virtus.pro 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautCrystallis
MorphlingTimado
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Ember SpiritAbed
DawnbreakerBOOM
BristlebackDaxak
DisruptorSeleri
HoodwinkAntares
Pudgeyamich
JakiroFly
Game 2prediction correct32:9
MOUZ 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Templar AssassinTimado
JuggernautCrystallis
Dragon KnightAbed
TidehunterBOOM
EnigmaDaxak
PugnaSeleri
TechiesAntares
Pudgeyamich
EnchantressFly
Game 3prediction missed7:29
MOUZ 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordCrystallis
GyrocopterTimado
BeastmasterMidOne
PangolierAbed
DawnbreakerBOOM
TidehunterDaxak
BaneSeleri
SnapfireAntares
Tuskyamich
Winter WyvernFly
Game 4prediction correct31:6
MOUZ 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 24:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMidOne
Templar AssassinTimado
JuggernautCrystallis
Storm SpiritAbed
MarsBOOM
EnigmaDaxak
PugnaSeleri
JakiroFly
Pudgeyamich
Spirit BreakerAntares
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 53%
Series resultMOUZ 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4