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CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 1:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 28 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Wein · 24 games
54%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
61%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 17 games
76%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%

Yellow Submarine

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 24 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 22 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 21 game
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 20 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 19 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
455 picks · 433 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
455 picks · 232 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 950 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 371 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
303 picks · 150 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
300 picks · 226 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
288 picks · 657 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
288 picks · 671 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total51% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
eSpoiled 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 51%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1