CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OxinGamewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 30 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Dragon Knight
Nande · 24 games
Disruptor
Se · 23 games
Rubick
Pablo · 23 games
OxinGame
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
450 picks · 425 bans
Snapfire
446 picks · 225 bans
Puck
353 picks · 939 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
Warlock
298 picks · 148 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 225 bans
Batrider
285 picks · 660 bans
Nature's Prophet
282 picks · 667 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:17
Zero Tenacity 75%OxinGame 25%
The model gave 75% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by OxinGame in 37:06.
Game 2prediction correct14:36
Zero Tenacity 75%OxinGame 25%
The model gave 75% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:32.
Game 3prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 75%OxinGame 25%
The model gave 75% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by OxinGame.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 75%
Series resultOxinGame 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3