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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 17 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 14 games
64%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 14 games
57%
Magnus
Magnus
Tino- · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 10 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 10 games
60%

BOOM Esports

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sancity · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 15 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jhocam · 14 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 13 games
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
449 picks · 423 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
440 picks · 225 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 937 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
298 picks · 148 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
293 picks · 224 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
283 picks · 660 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
281 picks · 855 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total69% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:21
Execration 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 46:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPalos
56% · 263 games49% · 233 games
PuckSancity
Puck
Leshrac
LeshracBob
50% · 126 games52% · 217 games
Dragon KnightJaCkky
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsTino-
47% · 219 games49% · 184 games
DawnbreakerJabz
Dawnbreaker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterShanks
48% · 110 games50% · 133 games
RingmasterJhocam
Ringmaster
Snapfire
Snapfirecml
52% · 172 games49% · 123 games
SilencerNARMAN
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct24:23
Execration 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPalos
43% · 207 games49% · 212 games
Templar AssassinSancity
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckBob
54% · 393 games53% · 279 games
Dragon KnightJaCkky
Dragon Knight
Undying
UndyingTino-
50% · 144 games47% · 183 games
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
51% · 220 games48% · 330 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Disruptor
Disruptorcml
50% · 229 games54% · 189 games
JakiroNARMAN
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed31:34
Execration 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 1:01:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPalos
55% · 315 games52% · 237 games
Dragon KnightJaCkky
Dragon Knight
Undying
UndyingTino-
47% · 175 games50% · 180 games
Shadow FiendSancity
Shadow Fiend
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
50% · 240 games46% · 300 games
PangolierJabz
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingBob
53% · 323 games46% · 320 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Bane
Banecml
55% · 169 games46% · 185 games
JakiroNARMAN
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 69%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3