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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TaiLung Mafialoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Frank · 4 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
payk · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Elmisho · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Elmisho · 3 games
33%

TaiLung Mafia

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
449 picks · 422 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
439 picks · 224 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 935 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
298 picks · 148 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
293 picks · 224 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
282 picks · 660 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
281 picks · 852 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% TaiLung Mafia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:44
Peru Rejects 45%TaiLung Mafia 55%
The model gave 55% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia in 47:39.
Game 2prediction missed33:35
Peru Rejects 45%TaiLung Mafia 55%
The model gave 55% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 46:32.
Game 3prediction missed25:16
Peru Rejects 45%TaiLung Mafia 55%
The model gave 55% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 28:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTaiLung Mafia · 55%
Series resultPeru Rejects 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3