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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 23 games
70%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Axe
Axesignature
SSS · 13 games
62%

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 6 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
flacko · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
flacko · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnus
Norma · 5 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
448 picks · 419 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
436 picks · 222 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 934 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 369 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
294 picks · 148 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 225 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
281 picks · 663 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
281 picks · 853 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:27
1w Team 62%Inner Circle 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
48% · 148 games50% · 66 games
Anti-Mageyowaai
Anti-Mage
Puck
PuckSquad1x
51% · 237 games49% · 222 games
Void Spiritdualrazee
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
54% · 109 games55% · 79 games
Faceless VoidNorma
Faceless Void
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
51% · 195 games50% · 330 games
Warlockflacko
Warlock
Jakiro
Jakirokasane
47% · 203 games46% · 195 games
WindrangerFernans
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct35:21
1w Team 64%Inner Circle 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 49:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
56% · 234 games42% · 120 games
Svenyowaai
Sven
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSquad1x
54% · 153 games45% · 135 games
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Centaur Warrunner
Pudge
PudgeSSS
57% · 30 games51% · 100 games
Leshracdualrazee
Leshrac
Snapfire
Snapfireswedenstrong
50% · 231 game42% · 230 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Bane
Banekasane
58% · 111 games47% · 174 games
Warlockflacko
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct26:6
1w Team 62%Inner Circle 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
53% · 133 games56% · 56 games
Faceless Voidyowaai
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckSquad1x
46% · 262 games51% · 195 games
Void Spiritdualrazee
Void Spirit
Slardar
SlardarSSS
53% · 81 game46% · 58 games
UnderlordNorma
Underlord
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magikasane
56% · 29 games53% · 211 games
SnapfireFernans
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
41% · 166 games49% · 151 game
Jakiroflacko
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 72%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3