CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 5 games
Snapfire
armageddon · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
спортик · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
egx · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
egx · 3 games
Bristleback
takizawa · 2 games
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 28 games
Disruptor
Wein · 23 games
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 18 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
441 picks · 418 bans
Snapfire
431 picks · 217 bans
Puck
352 picks · 926 bans
Pugna
327 picks · 369 bans
Warlock
292 picks · 147 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 227 bans
Batrider
280 picks · 670 bans
Queen of Pain
279 picks · 852 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 45%
Hero pool strength61% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:25
VP.Prodigy 25%eSpoiled 75%
The model gave 75% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 49:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehuntertakizawa
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Marciegx
Ember SpiritDifference
Windrangerarmageddon
Chenasdekor_r
JakiroVaniLLl
DisruptorWein
Game 2prediction correct49:36
VP.Prodigy 25%eSpoiled 75%
The model gave 75% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 1:06:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
LeshracDifference
Marciegx
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Snapfirearmageddon
Jakiroasdekor_r
Ancient ApparitionVaniLLl
TinyWein
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 87%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2