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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 20 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
71%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 23 games
70%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 15 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Axe
Axesignature
SSS · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
439 picks · 416 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
428 picks · 216 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 921 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 368 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
292 picks · 145 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 227 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
280 picks · 668 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
278 picks · 665 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total66% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:27
Passion UA 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallize
47% · 56 games42% · 167 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMoonlight
56% · 239 games52% · 162 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsBatyuk
47% · 179 games50% · 165 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
48% · 169 games60% · 115 games
Chenkasane
Chen
Disruptor
Disruptorkreker
53% · 195 games47% · 229 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed45:20
Passion UA 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Passion UA in 54:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
53% · 159 games51% · 199 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
46% · 400 games50% · 312 games
Dragon KnightSquad1x
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
48% · 374 games55% · 412 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
47% · 243 games50% · 232 games
Disruptorswedenstrong
Disruptor
Ringmaster
RingmasterQBFY
50% · 334 games51% · 355 games
Jakirokasane
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct19:44
Passion UA 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
44% · 308 games47% · 187 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
56% · 135 games50% · 459 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
51% · 104 games54% · 134 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Tiny
TinyQBFY
48% · 304 games45% · 179 games
Snapfireswedenstrong
Snapfire
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
46% · 250 games60% · 142 games
Banekasane
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 66%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3