?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tearlaments

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 10 games
90%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
zzq · 7 games
86%

Roar Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 7 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 7 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Ulu · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RedPanda · 6 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 5 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshrac
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
437 picks · 411 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
423 picks · 214 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 919 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 367 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
290 picks · 143 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 224 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 670 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 850 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total58% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:6
Tearlaments 57%Roar Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 21:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magepoyoyo
50% · 38 games49% · 244 games
PuckButterflyEffect
Puck
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetEcho
54% · 217 games51% · 87 games
Troll WarlordUlu
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark Seerniu
53% · 239 games43% · 211 games
Mars生死
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfirezzq
52% · 180 games48% · 203 games
RingmasterCatYou
Ringmaster
Tiny
Tiny7e
50% · 367 games49% · 296 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct34:28
Tearlaments 54%Roar Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 57:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
53% · 221 game47% · 336 games
PuckButterflyEffect
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEcho
44% · 177 games49% · 153 games
AbaddonUlu
Abaddon
Pangolier
Pangolierniu
45% · 335 games52% · 113 games
Slardar生死
Slardar
Snapfire
Snapfirezzq
48% · 156 games52% · 190 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
Riki
Riki7e
53% · 76 games57% · 173 games
Shadow DemonCatYou
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 58%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2