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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TaiLung Mafiawin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OG LATAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TaiLung Mafia

No games played over 6 months.

OG LATAM

Tusk
Tusksignature
Elmisho · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Genek · 10 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 8 games
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
K1 · 8 games
38%
Underlord
Underlord
ILICH- · 8 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 8 games
50%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
MoOz · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
437 picks · 408 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
420 picks · 214 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 915 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 366 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
289 picks · 143 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 224 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 667 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 847 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% OG LATAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% TaiLung Mafia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TaiLung Mafia 57%OG LATAM 43%
The model gave 57% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia.
Game 2prediction missed
TaiLung Mafia 57%OG LATAM 43%
The model gave 57% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by OG LATAM.
Game 3prediction correct
TaiLung Mafia 57%OG LATAM 43%
The model gave 57% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia.
Model check result
Model favoriteTaiLung Mafia · 57%
Series resultTaiLung Mafia 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3