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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HunterZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Peru Rejects

Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Frank · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Elmisho · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Elmisho · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
payk · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
100%

HunterZ

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 7 games
43%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 6 games
100%
Slardar
Slardar
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Prada · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Prada · 3 games
67%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
436 picks · 406 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
418 picks · 213 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 912 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 366 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
289 picks · 143 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 224 bans
49%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 844 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
277 picks · 666 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% HunterZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:18
Peru Rejects 55%HunterZ 45%
The model gave 55% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarParker
49% · 49 games50% · 152 games
Templar AssassinLumière
Templar Assassin
Slardar
SlardarDarkMago
52% · 85 games49% · 176 games
EarthshakerVitaly
Earthshaker
Mars
Marspayk
45% · 165 games52% · 124 games
JakiroPrada
Jakiro
Snapfire
SnapfireMichael
47% · 212 games52% · 222 games
HoodwinkMjz
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorElmisho
53% · 163 games
Game 2prediction missed14:30
Peru Rejects 57%HunterZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by HunterZ in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinParker
48% · 180 games54% · 361 game
BristlebackLumière
Bristleback
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
56% · 228 games51% · 295 games
BeastmasterVitaly
Beastmaster
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerpayk
53% · 120 games42% · 264 games
JakiroMjz
Jakiro
Batrider
BatriderMichael
53% · 275 games48% · 67 games
OraclePrada
Oracle
Silencer
SilencerElmisho
46% · 184 games
Game 3prediction correct33:22
Peru Rejects 56%HunterZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaParker
46% · 169 games55% · 183 games
UrsaLumière
Ursa
Bristleback
Bristlebackpayk
50% · 267 games53% · 215 games
Dark SeerVitaly
Dark Seer
Mars
MarsDarkMago
48% · 180 games50% · 354 games
BatriderPrada
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireMichael
51% · 197 games41% · 260 games
HoodwinkMjz
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanElmisho
56% · 199 games
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 63%
Series resultPeru Rejects 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3