CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Snapfire
dEsire · 6 games
Pugnaoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
Slardar
Cloud · 5 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Muerta
dEsire · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 4 games
VP.Prodigy
Hoodwink
armageddon · 6 games
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 5 games
Snapfire
armageddon · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
egx · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
egx · 3 games
Bristleback
takizawa · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
egx · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
435 picks · 403 bans
Snapfire
411 picks · 210 bans
Puck
349 picks · 907 bans
Pugna
325 picks · 366 bans
Warlock
289 picks · 143 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 670 bans
Nature's Prophet
276 picks · 663 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength56% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
Team Tea 74%VP.Prodigy 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 26:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverShigetsu
Svenegx
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Dawnbreakertakizawa
Sand KingWorick
Snapfirearmageddon
HoodwinkdEsire
EnchantressVaniLLl
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction correct28:9
Team Tea 72%VP.Prodigy 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreShigetsu
Svenegx
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Sand Kingtakizawa
Queen of PainWorick
Hoodwinkarmageddon
ChenSoNNeikO
SilencerVaniLLl
RubickdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 87%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2