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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 29 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 26 games
35%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 21 game
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 16 games
56%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 15 games
60%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 29 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Nande · 25 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 25 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 25 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 23 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
435 picks · 403 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
411 picks · 210 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 907 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 366 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
289 picks · 143 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 228 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
278 picks · 670 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
276 picks · 663 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:43
AVULUS 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 39:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLorenof
52% · 192 games48% · 287 games
Terrorblade423
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
53% · 471 game50% · 352 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawSabeRLight-
49% · 235 games51% · 326 games
TinyMirage
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireJANTER
42% · 192 games48% · 164 games
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Lion
LionEkki
51% · 263 games55% · 224 games
Shadow DemonJeezy
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed15:30
AVULUS 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
46% · 204 games49% · 210 games
Terrorblade423
Terrorblade
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
53% · 143 games48% · 77 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
47% · 92 games53% · 181 game
EarthshakerMirage
Earthshaker
Snapfire
SnapfireJANTER
49% · 149 games54% · 120 games
ChenSe
Chen
Alchemist
AlchemistEkki
51% · 66 games49% · 66 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 67%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2