PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 33 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 32 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 31 game
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 26 games
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 19 games
Snapfire
mrls · 18 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
433 picks · 402 bans
Snapfire
409 picks · 209 bans
Puck
349 picks · 904 bans
Pugna
323 picks · 366 bans
Warlock
288 picks · 142 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
277 picks · 670 bans
Nature's Prophet
276 picks · 663 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total63% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:6
Runa Team 58%Yellow Submarine 42%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
Bristlebackbottega
LycanAlberkaaa
LeshracMirele
Earthshakernicky`cool
Slardarlaise
Hoodwinkqueezy
Snapfiresayuw
DisruptorHduo
OracleXakoda
Game 2prediction missed27:23
Runa Team 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanAlberkaaa
Lifestealerbottega
Tinynicky`cool
Storm SpiritMirele
Gyrocopternesfeer
Beastmasterlaise
Hoodwinkqueezy
SnapfireXakoda
JakiroHduo
Banesayuw
Game 3prediction correct32:19
Runa Team 60%Yellow Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealernesfeer
Troll Warlordbottega
Timbersawnicky`cool
Void SpiritMirele
SlardarAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
Batriderqueezy
WarlockXakoda
DisruptorHduo
Hoodwinksayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 63%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3