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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eSpoiledwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 20 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
82%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 16 games
75%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 27 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Wein · 23 games
52%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 22 games
64%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 19 games
42%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 16 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
433 picks · 400 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
409 picks · 206 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 903 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
323 picks · 366 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
287 picks · 141 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 227 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
277 picks · 673 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
277 picks · 840 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:19
Passion UA 52%eSpoiled 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 32:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
51% · 150 games54% · 210 games
Templar Assassinssnovv1
Templar Assassin
Marci
MarciCrystallize
48% · 111 games52% · 269 games
Dragon KnightDifference
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierMoonlight
44% · 253 games49% · 213 games
JakiroWein
Jakiro
Warlock
Warlockkreker
47% · 233 games49% · 130 games
Baneasdekor_r
Bane
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
56% · 75 games
Game 2prediction missed25:31
Passion UA 54%eSpoiled 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBatyuk
55% · 221 game46% · 182 games
Dragon Knightssnovv1
Dragon Knight
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallize
56% · 135 games47% · 89 games
SlardarDifference
Slardar
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
52% · 95 games53% · 188 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Marci
Marcikreker
43% · 108 games48% · 149 games
JakiroWein
Jakiro
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
51% · 49 games
Game 3prediction missed
Passion UA 57%eSpoiled 43%
The model gave 57% on Passion UA — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 57%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3