PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
DOGSENTloss 0:2series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DOGSENT
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 19 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shad · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
433 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
408 picks · 206 bans
Puck
349 picks · 902 bans
Pugna
322 picks · 365 bans
Warlock
287 picks · 141 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 227 bans
Batrider
277 picks · 673 bans
Queen of Pain
277 picks · 840 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% DOGSENT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:40
DOGSENT 10%OG 90%
The model gave 90% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:34.
Game 2prediction correct15:45
DOGSENT 10%OG 90%
The model gave 90% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 90%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2