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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
50%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Bristleback
Bristleback
StoneBank · 5 games
20%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 27 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Wein · 22 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 21 game
62%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 19 games
42%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 16 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
430 picks · 400 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
406 picks · 206 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 899 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
320 picks · 364 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
285 picks · 140 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
284 picks · 228 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
277 picks · 674 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 840 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:31
Team Lynx 37%eSpoiled 63%
The model gave 63% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade7jesu
45% · 204 games44% · 78 games
Svenssnovv1
Sven
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
50% · 119 games52% · 82 games
SlardarDifference
Slardar
Magnus
MagnusVladikTheHtiviy
55% · 166 games54% · 164 games
Shadow DemonWein
Shadow Demon
49% · 165 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Team Lynx 39%eSpoiled 61%
The model gave 61% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 51:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Venomancer
Venomancer7jesu
46% · 7 games57% · 3 games
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
Winter Wyvern
Huskar
HuskarVladikTheHtiviy
85% · 9 games56% · 5 games
Legion Commanderssnovv1
Legion Commander
Phoenix
Phoenixmellojul
50% · 35 games45% · 12 games
TinkerDifference
Tinker
41% · 31 game
RazorWein
Razor
Game 3prediction correct15:23
Team Lynx 35%eSpoiled 65%
The model gave 65% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawmellojul
48% · 125 games53% · 89 games
Medusassnovv1
Medusa
Sven
Sven7jesu
43% · 153 games52% · 152 games
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastVladikTheHtiviy
53% · 117 games46% · 81 game
JakiroWein
Jakiro
57% · 73 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 75%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3