PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTATeam Aureuswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aureus
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 11 games
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
Natsumi · 6 games
Ivory
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 6 games
Tinysignature
Rupido · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Disruptor
Teehee · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
427 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 205 bans
Puck
347 picks · 897 bans
Pugna
319 picks · 363 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 139 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 673 bans
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 840 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 44%
Hero pool strength61% Team Aureus
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:0
Team Aureus 70%Ivory 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 51:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistTims
MarsRupido
DisruptorSkem
GyrocopterDric~
Dark SeerForce
BaneTeehee
SniperYopaj
Shadow FiendKen
Dragon KnightNatsumi
Game 2prediction correct35:27
Team Aureus 70%Ivory 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperYopaj
Shadow FiendKen
Dragon KnightNatsumi
MarsRupido
Dark SeerForce
GyrocopterDric~
DisruptorSkem
BaneTeehee
AlchemistTims
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 83%
Series resultTeam Aureus 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2