PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TToLightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tearlaments
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 11 games
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 9 games
Marssignature
Srf · 8 games
Snapfire
7e · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
ToLight
Hoodwink
sheep · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
sheep · 1 game
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
426 picks · 395 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 204 bans
Puck
346 picks · 893 bans
Pugna
319 picks · 363 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 138 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
277 picks · 673 bans
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 835 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:9
Tearlaments 72%ToLight 28%
The model gave 72% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 31:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
Batridersheep
PuckEcho
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Naga Sirenzzq
Slark7e
Game 2prediction correct37:13
Tearlaments 69%ToLight 31%
The model gave 69% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 25:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezpoyoyo
Snapfiresheep
Dark Seerniu
BeastmasterEcho
Enchantresszzq
Clockwerk7e
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 85%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2