PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionDDirebornloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Direborn
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
woMy · 2 games
Clockwerk
db- · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Cije · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 2 games
Ancient Apparition
Juju · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Juju · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
woMy · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Cije · 1 game
Team Nemesis
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 9 games
Leshrac
Mac · 9 games
Tiny
Jing · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Raven · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 7 games
Snapfiresignature
Jing · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
424 picks · 394 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 203 bans
Puck
344 picks · 892 bans
Pugna
318 picks · 361 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 138 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
276 picks · 670 bans
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 831 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 24%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:19
Direborn 29%Team Nemesis 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 24:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautCije
Troll WarlordAkashi
BeastmasterwoMy
Sand KingMac
Oracledb-
LycanRaven
Bounty HunterJuju
PhoenixKuku
52% · 89 games
RingmasterJing
Game 2prediction correct22:42
Direborn 30%Team Nemesis 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 43:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackCije
MarciAkashi
Centaur WarrunnerwoMy
LycanRaven
Ancient ApparitionJuju
Dragon KnightMac
Clockwerkdb-
SnapfireKuku
47% · 116 games
DisruptorJing
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 86%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2