?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HunterZwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AllStarsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HunterZ

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 6 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
100%
Slardar
Slardar
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Prada · 3 games
67%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
67%
Bane
Bane
Prada · 2 games
50%

AllStars

Mars
Marsoften banned
blessed kid · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Benjimon · 6 games
33%
Omniknight
Omniknight
blessed kid · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
20%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Asao · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Accel · 5 games
0%
Warlock
Warlock
Accel · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
424 picks · 393 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
398 picks · 203 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 892 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
318 picks · 361 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
283 picks · 138 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 228 bans
49%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 830 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 670 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% HunterZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% HunterZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:36
HunterZ 55%AllStars 45%
The model gave 55% on HunterZ — the game was taken by AllStars in 35:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLumière
53% · 168 games47% · 107 games
SvenbsK7-
Sven
Underlord
UnderlordVitaly
54% · 63 games48% · 218 games
Storm SpiritBenjimon
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireMjz
53% · 203 games38% · 67 games
Night Stalkerblessed kid
Night Stalker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPrada
53% · 279 games52% · 136 games
EnchantressAccel
Enchantress
47% · 185 games
HoodwinkAsao
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct37:16
HunterZ 54%AllStars 46%
The model gave 54% on HunterZ — the game was taken by HunterZ in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLumière
56% · 64 games49% · 113 games
UrsabsK7-
Ursa
Bristleback
BristlebackVitaly
55% · 281 game49% · 198 games
Ember SpiritBenjimon
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMjz
46% · 253 games44% · 174 games
Marsblessed kid
Mars
Warlock
WarlockPrada
50% · 204 games55% · 148 games
EnchantressAccel
Enchantress
46% · 169 games
SnapfireAsao
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct42:8
HunterZ 55%AllStars 45%
The model gave 55% on HunterZ — the game was taken by HunterZ in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerLumière
49% · 102 games45% · 53 games
Troll WarlordbsK7-
Troll Warlord
Earthshaker
EarthshakerVitaly
54% · 273 games47% · 264 games
PuckBenjimon
Puck
Batrider
BatriderPrada
49% · 369 games53% · 174 games
Abaddonblessed kid
Abaddon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMjz
51% · 215 games54% · 194 games
SnapfireAsao
Snapfire
47% · 274 games
ClockwerkAccel
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteHunterZ · 58%
Series resultHunterZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3