PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DOGSENTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
Tusk
yamich · 14 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 13 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 13 games
DOGSENT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
421 picks · 392 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 197 bans
Puck
343 picks · 894 bans
Pugna
316 picks · 358 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 228 bans
Warlock
285 picks · 138 bans
Batrider
276 picks · 676 bans
Queen of Pain
275 picks · 831 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:10
MOUZ 91%DOGSENT 9%
The model gave 91% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 21:00.
Game 2prediction correct52:26
MOUZ 91%DOGSENT 9%
The model gave 91% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 91%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2