PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Balaclavasloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balaclavas
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Death Prophet
Adzantick · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 29 games
Dragon Knight
Nande · 25 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 24 games
Warlock
Se · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
Disruptor
Se · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
420 picks · 387 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 196 bans
Puck
342 picks · 893 bans
Pugna
315 picks · 357 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 231 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 138 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 680 bans
Dawnbreaker
272 picks · 813 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 49%
Hero pool strength58% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:13
Balaclavas 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:53.
Game 2prediction correct7:42
Balaclavas 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 67%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2