PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBBikini Bottomloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 23 games
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 21 game
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 18 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 17 games
Snapfire
mrls · 17 games
Tiny
bottega · 17 games
Bikini Bottom
Earthshakeroften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
Kunkka
rincyq · 2 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
Ringmaster
aik · 2 games
Slardar
rincyq · 2 games
Techies
aik · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
419 picks · 384 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 194 bans
Puck
341 picks · 894 bans
Pugna
315 picks · 357 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 233 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 138 bans
Batrider
279 picks · 680 bans
Dawnbreaker
273 picks · 813 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:42
Yellow Submarine 63%Bikini Bottom 37%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom in 54:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EarthshakerMirele
Puckряф^^
Troll Warlordbottega
Svenrincyq
Undyinglaise
UnderlordCorrupted
Naga SirenXakoda
PhoenixImmersion
Ringmastersayuw
Disruptoraik
Game 2prediction correct31:33
Yellow Submarine 65%Bikini Bottom 35%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 49:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMirele
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Broodmotherbottega
Marcirincyq
Night Stalkerlaise
Dazzleряф^^
Ancient ApparitionXakoda
Lichaik
Snapfiresayuw
Shadow DemonImmersion
Game 3prediction correct28:11
Yellow Submarine 63%Bikini Bottom 37%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidbottega
Terrorbladerincyq
Beastmasterlaise
Earthshakerряф^^
PuckMirele
SlardarCorrupted
Hoodwinksayuw
Snapfireaik
WarlockXakoda
AlchemistImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 75%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3