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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Wein · 22 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 20 games
60%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 19 games
42%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 15 games
73%

HULIGANI

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 20 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 18 games
61%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
419 picks · 382 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
389 picks · 193 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 893 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
314 picks · 357 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 233 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
283 picks · 138 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 680 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
273 picks · 811 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:24
eSpoiled 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 1:02:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidssnovv1
62% · 48 games49% · 74 games
LycanBb3px
Lycan
Leshrac
LeshracDifference
50% · 120 games52% · 77 games
Void Spiriterase
Void Spirit
Snapfire
Snapfireasdekor_r
50% · 192 games54% · 101 game
Marciv1olent-
Marci
Pugna
PugnaWein
46% · 187 games47% · 135 games
WarlockRESPECT
Warlock
43% · 160 games
Hoodwinkslimeyao
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed28:31
eSpoiled 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusassnovv1
57% · 120 games56% · 61 game
Faceless Voidv1olent-
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckDifference
47% · 261 game50% · 156 games
MarciBb3px
Marci
Ringmaster
Ringmasterasdekor_r
52% · 65 games55% · 186 games
Void Spiriterase
Void Spirit
Tusk
TuskWein
47% · 268 games48% · 152 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
40% · 159 games
Hoodwinkslimeyao
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 58%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2