Execration vs Tekla — prediction PWS6ЗК · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Execrationwin 2:1

series probability

70%30%

probability at match start · final 2:1

TTeklaloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfiresignature

Shanks · 14 games

64%

Witch Doctor

cml · 14 games

57%

Tusksignature

Shanks · 12 games

67%

Gyrocoptersignature

Palos · 10 games

80%

Svensignature

Palos · 10 games

60%

Batridersignature

Shanks · 9 games

67%

Magnus

Tino- · 9 games

56%

Templar Assassinoften banned

Palos · 9 games

44%

Tekla

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Disruptor

419 picks · 381 bans

53%

Snapfire

385 picks · 193 bans

57%

Puck

342 picks · 889 bans

51%

Pugna

314 picks · 357 bans

53%

Tusk

286 picks · 234 bans

49%

Warlock

283 picks · 138 bans

54%

Batrider

279 picks · 680 bans

53%

Dawnbreaker

275 picks · 808 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%

Hero pool strength55% Execration

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total70% Execration

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed15:32

Execration 60%Tekla 40%

The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Tekla in 44:45.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo