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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 23 games
70%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 15 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 15 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
79%

Runa Team

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 34 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 34 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 33 games
70%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 32 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 31 game
45%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 31 game
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 25 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
419 picks · 379 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
383 picks · 193 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 887 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
314 picks · 357 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 234 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
282 picks · 137 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 679 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 806 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total52% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:17
1w Team 50%Runa Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
55% · 224 games51% · 313 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
49% · 365 games55% · 406 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierSSS
43% · 415 games54% · 82 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Snapfire
Snapfireswedenstrong
45% · 181 game52% · 303 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Enchantress
Enchantresskasane
48% · 186 games48% · 267 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct7:31
1w Team 47%Runa Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMunkushi~
47% · 88 games53% · 227 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
42% · 120 games53% · 63 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Mars
MarsSSS
45% · 146 games52% · 76 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Phoenix
Phoenixswedenstrong
54% · 217 games53% · 91 game
ChenHduo
Chen
Bane
Banekasane
54% · 80 games46% · 194 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 52%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2