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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ivorywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 9 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 6 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Ponyo · 5 games
20%

Ivory

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 6 games
17%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Rupido · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
20%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Rupido · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Dric~ · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
418 picks · 378 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
382 picks · 193 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 886 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
314 picks · 357 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 233 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 137 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 677 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 806 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:18
Team Nemesis 65%Ivory 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMac
54% · 349 games55% · 186 games
EarthshakerKen
Earthshaker
Ursa
UrsaAkashi
56% · 153 games48% · 383 games
PangolierRupido
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
53% · 173 games44% · 251 game
GyrocopterTeehee
Gyrocopter
Warlock
WarlockKuku
46% · 202 games46% · 159 games
Shadow DemonDric~
Shadow Demon
Bane
BaneJing
51% · 102 games
Game 2prediction missed16:32
Team Nemesis 64%Ivory 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Ivory in 42:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAkashi
44% · 25 games51% · 111 games
LeshracKen
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey KingMac
48% · 200 games54% · 183 games
Sand KingRupido
Sand King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
55% · 137 games51% · 179 games
DisruptorDric~
Disruptor
Snapfire
SnapfireJing
46% · 170 games45% · 155 games
WarlockTeehee
Warlock
Enchantress
EnchantressKuku
52% · 96 games
Game 3prediction missed
Team Nemesis 75%Ivory 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Ivory.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 75%
Series resultIvory 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3