PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTATeam Aureuswin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDirebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aureus
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 11 games
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
Natsumi · 6 games
Direborn
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
woMy · 2 games
Clockwerk
db- · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Cije · 2 games
Ancient Apparition
Juju · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Cije · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 1 game
Silenceroften banned
Juju · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
418 picks · 377 bans
Snapfire
382 picks · 193 bans
Puck
342 picks · 886 bans
Pugna
313 picks · 357 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 233 bans
Warlock
280 picks · 137 bans
Batrider
279 picks · 676 bans
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 805 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:5
Team Aureus 80%Direborn 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 25:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNatsumi
SvenCije
LycanForce
EarthshakerwoMy
Void SpiritYopaj
Pugnadb-
ChenSkem
Crystal MaidenJuju
RubickTims
Game 2prediction correct
Team Aureus 93%Direborn 7%
The model gave 93% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 93%
Series resultTeam Aureus 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2