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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 15 games
80%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 13 games
54%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 12 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 18 games
61%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 16 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
412 picks · 373 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 190 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 889 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
312 picks · 356 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 239 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
282 picks · 136 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 808 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
277 picks · 685 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:15
Pipsqueak+4 46%HULIGANI 54%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerNande
36% · 6 games55% · 211 games
Medusav1olent-
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPalantimos
50% · 283 games50% · 169 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Puck
Puckxn丶e
49% · 246 games48% · 282 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireKaori
46% · 139 games63% · 58 games
Slarkslimeyao
Slark
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
45% · 194 games48% · 148 games
SilencerRESPECT
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed26:10
Pipsqueak+4 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 26:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNande
56% · 55 games46% · 260 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Viper
ViperPalantimos
67% · 42 games52% · 185 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
52% · 299 games41% · 163 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
55% · 245 games47% · 263 games
Batriderslimeyao
Batrider
Tusk
TuskKaori
44% · 434 games46% · 204 games
PugnaRESPECT
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct16:40
Pipsqueak+4 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoNande
66% · 13 games58% · 17 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Leshrac
Leshracxn丶e
46% · 114 games42% · 191 game
DawnbreakerBb3px
Dawnbreaker
Mars
MarsPalantimos
42% · 127 games50% · 193 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
45% · 220 games58% · 117 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Snapfire
SnapfireKidaro
52% · 89 games66% · 45 games
Slarkslimeyao
Slark
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 56%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3