FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 3:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 31 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 17 games
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
Talon Esports
Storm Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 24 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 21 game
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ws · 17 games
Ringmaster
Jhocam · 17 games
Magnusoften banned
Ws · 15 games
Windrangersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
Doomoften banned
Ws · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
408 picks · 371 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 189 bans
Puck
346 picks · 888 bans
Pugna
310 picks · 355 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 241 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 136 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 809 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 687 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total55% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:6
Yakult Brothers 47%Talon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 25:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracEmo
Dragon Knight23savage
Anti-Mageflyfly
Storm SpiritMikoto
Marszeal
Monkey KingWs
AlchemistBoBoKa
ChenOli
BanePoloson
HoodwinkQ
Game 2prediction missed29:16
Yakult Brothers 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursaflyfly
Lifestealer23savage
Queen of PainEmo
Storm SpiritMikoto
Marszeal
Centaur WarrunnerWs
DisruptorPoloson
Nature's ProphetQ
AlchemistBoBoKa
EnchantressOli
Game 3prediction correct9:30
Yakult Brothers 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusaflyfly
Gyrocopter23savage
Storm SpiritEmo
MagnusWs
Earthshakerzeal
Void SpiritMikoto
EnigmaBoBoKa
BatriderQ
EnchantressPoloson
DisruptorOli
Game 4prediction missed27:4
Yakult Brothers 50%Talon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 30:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mageflyfly
Bristleback23savage
PuckEmo
Dragon KnightMikoto
Enigmazeal
Night StalkerWs
SnapfirePoloson
BatriderQ
MagnusBoBoKa
PugnaOli
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 55%
Series resultYakult Brothers 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4