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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AllStarswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Perros angryyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AllStars

Mars
Marsoften banned
blessed kid · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
20%
Omniknight
Omniknight
blessed kid · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
20%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
FeelinG · 5 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Accel · 5 games
0%
Warlock
Warlock
Accel · 5 games
80%

Perros angryy

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
408 picks · 368 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 188 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 886 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
309 picks · 354 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 242 bans
48%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 809 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
282 picks · 136 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
276 picks · 688 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Perros angryy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% AllStars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:31
AllStars 58%Perros angryy 42%
The model gave 58% on AllStars — the game was taken by AllStars in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordbsK7-
29% · 3 games52% · 121 game
UndyingFeelinG
Undying
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBenjimon
51% · 41 game
Mars
Marsblessed kid
45% · 16 games
Snapfire
SnapfireAsao
55% · 29 games
Disruptor
DisruptorAccel
47% · 32 games
Game 2prediction correct
AllStars 69%Perros angryy 31%
The model gave 69% on AllStars — the game was taken by AllStars.
Model check result
Model favoriteAllStars · 69%
Series resultAllStars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2