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Streamers League #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Stariy_bog Teamloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gorgc Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Stariy_bog Team

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Коля · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Zloba · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Stariy bog · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
senna · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
Коля · 2 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmother
senna · 1 game
100%

Gorgc Team

Axe
Axeoften banned
sheepsticked · 3 games
33%
Tinker
Tinkeroften banned
Excalibur · 3 games
33%
Bane
Bane
pieliedie · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
SingSing · 2 games
50%
Arc Warden
Arc Warden
Excalibur · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
sheepsticked · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
630 picks · 445 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
591 picks · 338 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
434 picks · 632 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
419 picks · 479 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 359 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 380 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 492 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 970 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Stariy_bog Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Stariy_bog Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:32
Stariy_bog Team 59%Gorgc Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Stariy_bog Team — the game was taken by Stariy_bog Team in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsenna
44% · 206 games51% · 184 games
GyrocopterGorgc
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyStariy bog
57% · 366 games49% · 304 games
Storm SpiritExcalibur
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoommeLes
57% · 145 games44% · 268 games
Marssheepsticked
Mars
Rubick
RubickZloba
62% · 116 games43% · 78 games
Skywrath MageSingSing
Skywrath Mage
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiКоля
49% · 47 games40% · 46 games
Iopieliedie
Io
Game 2prediction missed29:63
Stariy_bog Team 57%Gorgc Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Stariy_bog Team — the game was taken by Gorgc Team in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoStariy bog
47% · 21 game48% · 194 games
Storm SpiritExcalibur
Storm Spirit
Tiny
Tinysenna
55% · 321 game43% · 79 games
Faceless VoidGorgc
Faceless Void
Largo
LargomeLes
55% · 136 games51% · 29 games
MiranaSingSing
Mirana
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerZloba
54% · 54 games41% · 56 games
Ancient Apparitionpieliedie
Ancient Apparition
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorКоля
47% · 18 games49% · 192 games
Marssheepsticked
Mars
Game 3prediction missed61:81
Stariy_bog Team 57%Gorgc Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Stariy_bog Team — the game was taken by Gorgc Team in 1:22:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svensenna
40% · 114 games53% · 343 games
PuckExcalibur
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStariy bog
45% · 204 games53% · 95 games
Faceless VoidGorgc
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsmeLes
51% · 316 games55% · 133 games
Undyingsheepsticked
Undying
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZloba
49% · 196 games49% · 25 games
Iopieliedie
Io
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiКоля
51% · 50 games51% · 284 games
SnapfireSingSing
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteStariy_bog Team · 63%
Series resultGorgc Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3