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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 29 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xibbe · 16 games
63%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 23 games
52%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
407 picks · 367 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
361 picks · 188 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 883 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
307 picks · 354 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 245 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 808 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
281 picks · 136 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 691 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
AVULUS 44%Virtus.pro 56%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
53% · 265 games46% · 287 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLorenof
52% · 460 games54% · 395 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
51% · 269 games45% · 435 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
53% · 316 games48% · 183 games
SnapfireAntares
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaJANTER
49% · 265 games49% · 275 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed37:20
AVULUS 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by AVULUS in 54:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
51% · 142 games54% · 206 games
MedusaTimado
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
50% · 165 games51% · 227 games
EarthshakerAbed
Earthshaker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
47% · 186 games39% · 157 games
AbaddonDaxak
Abaddon
Snapfire
SnapfireJANTER
47% · 152 games45% · 21 game
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Disruptor
DisruptorEkki
55% · 134 games58% · 168 games
Naga SirenFly
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction correct22:21
AVULUS 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:01:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLorenof
53% · 211 games46% · 198 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Wraith King
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
43% · 14 games52% · 191 game
PuckAbed
Puck
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
52% · 126 games50% · 77 games
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
Centaur Warrunner
Silencer
SilencerJANTER
49% · 168 games51% · 108 games
SnapfireAntares
Snapfire
Lion
LionEkki
48% · 202 games51% · 147 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 63%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3