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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
46%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 11 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 11 games
45%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 36 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 30 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 28 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Nande · 25 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 24 games
46%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 23 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
404 picks · 367 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
359 picks · 188 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 881 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
306 picks · 354 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 245 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 806 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 136 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 691 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total75% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:2
MOUZ 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 15:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
52% · 18 games52% · 151 game
Morphling423
Morphling
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
52% · 179 games51% · 200 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMidOne
48% · 179 games48% · 143 games
EarthshakerNefrit
Earthshaker
Batrider
Batrideryamich
47% · 389 games46% · 229 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Chen
ChenSeleri
59% · 136 games46% · 178 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct33:13
MOUZ 61%Zero Tenacity 39%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 24:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
56% · 5 games54% · 260 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Mars
MarsBOOM
44% · 237 games62% · 237 games
Bristleback423
Bristleback
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMidOne
46% · 191 game57% · 106 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
43% · 206 games58% · 271 game
Dark WillowJeezy
Dark Willow
Tusk
Tuskyamich
43% · 447 games50% · 212 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 75%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2