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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Wein · 24 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Wein · 21 game
48%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 19 games
42%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 18 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 15 games
73%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
65%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
82%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
399 picks · 361 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 182 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 869 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
304 picks · 347 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
284 picks · 247 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 799 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 135 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 688 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:32
eSpoiled 49%Passion UA 51%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 52:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusassnovv1
51% · 164 games48% · 172 games
Dragon KnightShigetsu
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDifference
51% · 90 games44% · 41 game
UnderlordBatyuk
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfireWein
49% · 127 games49% · 105 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
51% · 167 games59% · 124 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
47% · 106 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed52:40
eSpoiled 49%Passion UA 51%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 58:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordssnovv1
51% · 78 games54% · 174 games
Queen of PainBatyuk
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
57% · 404 games43% · 153 games
MarciCrystallize
Marci
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
54% · 345 games51% · 136 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Disruptor
DisruptorWein
51% · 167 games43% · 191 game
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
43% · 340 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct8:26
eSpoiled 45%Passion UA 55%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusassnovv1
43% · 118 games64% · 117 games
UrsaCrystallize
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
49% · 190 games45% · 132 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireWein
40% · 120 games62% · 45 games
SlarkBatyuk
Slark
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiasdekor_r
46% · 91 game57% · 167 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
50% · 58 games
Dazzlekreker
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 56%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3