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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 14 games
79%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 13 games
54%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 12 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 18 games
39%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
39%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 18 games
44%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 16 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Daze · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
399 picks · 361 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 182 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 869 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
304 picks · 347 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
284 picks · 247 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 799 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 135 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 688 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:33
Pipsqueak+4 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherNande
56% · 41 game50% · 168 games
Templar AssassinShad
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
Earthshakerxn丶e
54% · 222 games46% · 251 game
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsPalantimos
52% · 197 games45% · 246 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderKaori
52% · 307 games47% · 182 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
51% · 173 games49% · 93 games
Elder TitanLelis
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed43:49
Pipsqueak+4 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 1:18:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerNande
41% · 9 games45% · 162 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
53% · 271 game54% · 158 games
Templar AssassinShad
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
52% · 138 games45% · 146 games
MarsMikSa`
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireKaori
47% · 171 game51% · 163 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
46% · 153 games58% · 113 games
Elder TitanLelis
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct19:44
Pipsqueak+4 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 45:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNande
49% · 229 games41% · 225 games
TerrorbladeShad
Terrorblade
Leshrac
Leshracxn丶e
55% · 142 games47% · 207 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Slardar
SlardarPalantimos
47% · 93 games52% · 191 game
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKidaro
62% · 189 games46% · 137 games
DisruptorLelis
Disruptor
Lion
LionKaori
54% · 251 game47% · 144 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 61%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3