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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 9 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Raven · 5 games
20%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Raven · 5 games
20%

Execration

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
cml · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 9 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
398 picks · 359 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
352 picks · 181 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 869 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
303 picks · 347 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 796 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 135 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 686 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:24
Team Nemesis 38%Execration 62%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAkashi
57% · 172 games48% · 262 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckMac
55% · 319 games42% · 136 games
KunkkaBob
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierRaven
47% · 375 games52% · 212 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Marci
MarciJing
50% · 181 game47% · 168 games
SnapfireShanks
Snapfire
Bane
BanePonyo
56% · 131 game47% · 400 games
Tuskcml
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed38:17
Team Nemesis 37%Execration 63%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAkashi
52% · 52 games49% · 43 games
WeaverPalos
Weaver
Abaddon
AbaddonRaven
43% · 150 games54% · 198 games
EarthshakerBob
Earthshaker
Sand King
Sand KingMac
55% · 155 games58% · 92 games
Chencml
Chen
Snapfire
SnapfireJing
50% · 179 games46% · 173 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPonyo
48% · 288 games50% · 318 games
TuskShanks
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct18:39
Team Nemesis 37%Execration 63%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAkashi
56% · 191 game51% · 316 games
Dragon KnightPalos
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierMac
46% · 259 games51% · 178 games
Shadow FiendBob
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
49% · 130 games45% · 134 games
UndyingTino-
Undying
Pugna
PugnaJing
49% · 220 games50% · 199 games
HoodwinkShanks
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPonyo
53% · 244 games49% · 217 games
Disruptorcml
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 73%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3