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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Wein · 24 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 19 games
42%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 18 games
44%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 17 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 15 games
73%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
394 picks · 357 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 180 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 866 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
300 picks · 346 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
281 picks · 129 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 798 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 683 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total60% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:14
eSpoiled 40%Kalmychata 60%
The model gave 60% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 31:32.
Game 2prediction correct18:19
eSpoiled 40%Kalmychata 60%
The model gave 60% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 38:39.
Game 3prediction missed15:16
eSpoiled 40%Kalmychata 60%
The model gave 60% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 40:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 60%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3