PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RRiftloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 34 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 33 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 33 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 32 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 31 game
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 31 game
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 25 games
Rift
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
394 picks · 356 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 179 bans
Puck
343 picks · 865 bans
Pugna
300 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
281 picks · 129 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 797 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 683 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Runa Team 86%Rift 14%
The model gave 86% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 2prediction correct41:10
Runa Team 72%Rift 28%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 24:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopternesfeer
BeastmastermeLes
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Naga SirenHduo
Hoodwinkqueezy
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 86%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2