PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 3 games
Slardar
Cloud · 3 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 3 games
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Dragon Knight
Worick · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
HULIGANI
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 18 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 17 games
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 15 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
394 picks · 356 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 178 bans
Puck
342 picks · 865 bans
Pugna
299 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
281 picks · 129 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 796 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 683 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Tea 47%HULIGANI 53%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Team Tea.
Game 2prediction missed34:34
Team Tea 47%HULIGANI 53%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Team Tea in 1:18:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeShigetsu
Templar Assassinv1olent-
EarthshakerWorick
Puckerase
Primal BeastCloud
TidehunterBb3px
MuertadEsire
ChenRESPECT
PugnaSoNNeikO
Dark Willowslimeyao
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 53%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2