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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 36 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 30 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 27 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Nande · 26 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 25 games
48%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 22 games
64%

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
14%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Delight · 2 games
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
391 picks · 352 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
348 picks · 175 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 861 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
296 picks · 345 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 248 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
282 picks · 127 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 796 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
272 picks · 683 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total74% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Zero Tenacity 60%Winter Bear 40%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa423
46% · 42 games49% · 148 games
Sand KingPanda
Sand King
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNefrit
56% · 14 games
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMirage
53% · 34 games
Rubick
RubickJeezy
50% · 14 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSe
52% · 44 games
Game 2prediction correct27:21
Zero Tenacity 64%Winter Bear 36%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMirage
48% · 50 games45% · 292 games
Storm SpiritPanda
Storm Spirit
Ursa
Ursa423
59% · 35 games
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
56% · 97 games
Pugna
PugnaSe
60% · 48 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
52% · 62 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 74%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2