PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTToLightwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight
No games played over 6 months.
Surge Gaming
Enchantressoften banned
Hara · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Night · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
Hara · 3 games
Svenoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Night · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
385 picks · 349 bans
Snapfire
342 picks · 172 bans
Puck
340 picks · 861 bans
Pugna
295 picks · 339 bans
Warlock
283 picks · 126 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 248 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 790 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 685 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Surge Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% ToLight
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:26
ToLight 55%Surge Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on ToLight — the game was taken by Surge Gaming in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirensheep
SvenMS
38% · 38 games
DawnbreakerIrving
50% · 28 games
BeastmasterNight
34% · 31 game
DisruptorHara
Game 2prediction correct44:18
ToLight 51%Surge Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on ToLight — the game was taken by ToLight in 52:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfiresheep
Templar AssassinMS
48% · 44 games
PangolierIrving
56% · 53 games
BeastmasterNight
53% · 32 games
EnchantressHara
Game 3prediction missed36:19
ToLight 49%Surge Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Surge Gaming — the game was taken by ToLight in 48:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwinksheep
UrsaMS
66% · 60 games
Dragon KnightNight
43% · 40 games
Queen of PainIrving
50% · 42 games
PugnaHara
Model check result
Model favoriteToLight · 51%
Series resultToLight 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3