PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingwin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cloud Dawningloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Roar Gaming
Marssignature
生死 · 7 games
Snapfire
CatYou · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 5 games
Disruptor
RedPanda · 5 games
Earthshakeroften banned
生死 · 5 games
Leshrac
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Cloud Dawning
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
385 picks · 349 bans
Snapfire
342 picks · 172 bans
Puck
340 picks · 861 bans
Pugna
295 picks · 339 bans
Warlock
283 picks · 126 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 248 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 790 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 685 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:19
Roar Gaming 85%Cloud Dawning 15%
The model gave 85% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 1:05:12.
Game 2prediction correct26:10
Roar Gaming 85%Cloud Dawning 15%
The model gave 85% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 31:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 85%
Series resultRoar Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2